Players You Might Consider Trading

Introduction

We are one month into the NHL season and it's time to take stock of your fantasy hockey rosters. Below, you'll find a list of players that we believe you should consider trading. Each player on this list has multiple red flags indicating that their production so far this season has been heavily influenced by luck. Definitions for these red flags can be found in our article titled A Few Stats to Know. We anticipate most players on this list will experience a drop in production in the coming weeks and their trade value is at its peak.

Alex Killorn

Alex Killorn of the Tampa Bay Lightning has 12 points through 12 games which has him on a point-per-game pace that is nearly double his career average. His individual shooting percentage is alarmingly high at 30.4%. As a low-volume shooter (under 2 SOG per game), his goal production will drop precipitously when the luck runs out. He displays the following red flags:

tEVSH%: 11.6%

IPP: 90%

a260: 1.14 (career average: 0.42)

Andrew Mangiapane

Andrew Mangiapane of the Calgary Flames has enjoyed a strong start to his season with 11 points in his first 13 games. He currently ranks 5th in NHL goal scoring. His individual shooting percentage sits at 32.1%, which is nearly double his career average. He displays the following red flags:

tEVSH%: 10.6%

IPP: 82%

a260: 0.84 (career average: 0.19)

Tyler Bertuzzi

Tyler Bertuzzi of the Detroit Red Wings sits in 10th place in points with 15 in his first 12 games. His individual shooting percentage sits at 31.0%, which is nearly double his career average. He displays the following red flags:

tEVSH%: 11.7%

IPP: 79%

a260: 0.74 (career average: 0.57)

Leon Draisaitl

It seems silly to have Leon Draisaitl of the Edmonton Oilers on a trade list. After all, he was ranked as one of the top players to draft by us in nearly every scoring format imaginable. But there is a sillier position; and that is to believe that his production so far this season is sustainable. His individual shooting percentage is 33.3% which is nearly double his career average of 17.6%. He has 26 points in 12 games which puts him on pace for 178 points. This production rate would have Draisaitl exceed last year's 82-game pace by 55 points. It's not going to happen. If you trade Draisaitl, you should ask and receive the world. He displays the following red flags:

tEVSH%: 17.0% (typically ~11% in recent years)

a260: 0.88 (career average: 0.62)

Andrei Svechnikov

Andrei Svechnikov of the Carolina Hurricanes leads his team with 15 points through 11 games played. The 21-year-old is generating shots at a rate of 3.5 per game which provides some inertia should his individual shooting percentage of 18.0% begin to fall (his career average is 11.8%). He displays the following red flags:

tEVSH%: 12.3%

IPP: 80%

a260: 0.94 (career average: 0.66)

Alex Ovechkin

As is the case with Draisaitl, trading Alex Ovechkin of the Washington Capitals is a difficult move to make. He makes this list more to serve as a warning that his production is going to drop and less a cry for you to expel him from your team. If you attempt a trade, you must get signficant value in return (and the players must not have production that is buoyed by luck). Ovechkin has 22 points in 13 games and has already scored 11 goals. But there are red flags that suggest his production is going to go cold (at least by Ovechkin standards of cold):

tEVSH%: 16.8% (typically ~11% in recent years)

a260: 1.23 (career average: 0.37)

Timo Meier

Timo Meier of the San Jose Sharks returns to the lineup after missing some time due to being placed on the NHL's Covid-related absence protocol list. He leads all Sharks forwards in scoring with 11 points in 8 games played. He displays the following red flags:

tEVSH%: 12.9%

IPP: 90%

a260: 1.56 (career average: 0.46)

Kevin Shattenkirk

Kevin Shattenkirk of the Anaheim Ducks leads the NHL in points by defensemen with 13. He's currently scoring on 16.7% of his shots; with his low shot volume of 1.6 SOG per game, Shattenkirk's goal scoring will evaporate when the luck runs out. He displays the following red flags:

tEVSH%: 15.1%

IPP: 42%