Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

December 8, 2021 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Jake Oettinger	0.9179	143	122	0.9510	0.9590
Anthony Stolarz	0.9165	235	180	0.9277	0.9500
Jaroslav Halak	0.9160	166	139	0.9096	0.9496
Jack Campbell	0.9218	619	536	0.9386	0.9440
Jacob Markstrom	0.9114	555	463	0.9369	0.9417
Dan Vladar	0.9101	207	168	0.9275	0.9405
Jonathan Quick	0.9132	405	334	0.9259	0.9401

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
John Gibson	0.9164	643	86	0.9145	0.9535	0.9028
Tristan Jarry	0.9160	593	56	0.9342	0.9464	0.9240
Igor Shesterkin	0.9253	557	92	0.9372	0.9457	0.9239
Stuart Skinner	0.9127	214	33	0.9206	0.9394	0.9092
James Reimer	0.9138	407	45	0.9337	0.9333	0.9228
Jeremy Swayman	0.9300	329	43	0.9179	0.9302	0.9119
Ilya Sorokin	0.9210	513	66	0.9240	0.9242	0.9207
Ilya Samsonov	0.9102	382	51	0.9162	0.9216	0.9114
Mackenzie Blackwood	0.9106	354	38	0.9068	0.9211	0.9041
Elvis Merzlikins	0.9187	481	65	0.9148	0.9077	0.9098
Mike Smith	0.9121	100	21	0.9200	0.9048	0.9126
Sergei Bobrovsky	0.9165	452	73	0.9204	0.9041	0.9174
Philipp Grubauer	0.9177	498	60	0.8855	0.9000	0.8818
Vitek Vanecek	0.9072	327	41	0.9052	0.8293	0.9094
Karel Vejmelka	0.9063	427	69	0.9063	0.8261	0.9158
Thatcher Demko	0.9109	660	117	0.9121	0.8205	0.9225
Anton Khudobin	0.9162	181	39	0.8729	0.8205	0.8846
Cal Petersen	0.9122	319	50	0.8934	0.8200	0.9056
Jonathan Bernier	0.9124	264	44	0.9015	0.8182	0.9115
Matt Murray	0.9112	173	32	0.8902	0.8125	0.9001
Sam Montembeault	0.8931	223	40	0.8969	0.8000	0.9129
Thomas Greiss	0.9137	336	44	0.8988	0.7955	0.9092
Connor Hellebuyck	0.9167	629	100	0.9141	0.7900	0.9262
Alexandar Georgiev	0.9096	203	27	0.8818	0.7407	0.9022
Jaroslav Halak	0.9160	166	25	0.9096	0.6800	0.9362

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2021-2022 save percentage

EVSV%: 2021-2022 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2021-2022 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2021-2022 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

Comments (0)

In order to leave a comment, you must be a registered user at our website and logged in.

Older posts Newer posts