Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

February 1, 2023 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Linus Ullmark	0.9172	927	780	0.9364	0.9436

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Ilya Sorokin	0.9234	1124	177	0.9235	0.9153	0.9179
James Reimer	0.9116	883	106	0.8947	0.9151	0.8899
Pyotr Kochetkov	0.9122	497	81	0.9135	0.9136	0.9055
Jake Oettinger	0.9167	1082	165	0.9233	0.9091	0.9179
Magnus Hellberg	0.8942	213	32	0.9014	0.9063	0.8962
Cam Talbot	0.9141	768	138	0.9049	0.9058	0.8970
Petr Mrazek	0.9073	684	94	0.8845	0.8298	0.8908
Jack Campbell	0.9118	682	122	0.8871	0.8279	0.8962
Samuel Ersson	0.9185	184	29	0.9185	0.8276	0.9218
Brian Elliott	0.9102	380	52	0.9026	0.8269	0.9110
Mackenzie Blackwood	0.9063	367	52	0.8937	0.8269	0.9027
John Gibson	0.9130	1216	167	0.8980	0.8263	0.9053
Frederik Andersen	0.9157	373	57	0.9035	0.8246	0.9110
Martin Jones	0.9064	893	138	0.8947	0.8188	0.9049
Philipp Grubauer	0.9131	436	83	0.8968	0.8072	0.9122
Akira Schmid	0.8885	209	31	0.9187	0.8065	0.9239
Alex Nedeljkovic	0.9061	292	36	0.8801	0.8056	0.8943
Arvid Soderblom	0.8887	453	50	0.8940	0.8000	0.9046
Collin Delia	0.9026	283	42	0.8975	0.7857	0.9073
Spencer Martin	0.8889	784	106	0.8750	0.7736	0.8913
Eric Comrie	0.8982	379	46	0.8839	0.7609	0.8959
Erik Kallgren	0.8922	246	25	0.8984	0.7600	0.9102
Thatcher Demko	0.9095	479	53	0.8831	0.7170	0.9025
Cal Petersen	0.9046	257	36	0.8677	0.6944	0.8910

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2022-2023 save percentage

EVSV%: 2022-2023 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2022-2023 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2022-2023 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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