Finding Value at the G Position

Introduction

In part five of a five-part series on finding value in your fantasy hockey draft, today's article will focus on goalies. Part I in this series discussed left wings; Part II discussed right wings; Part III discussed centers; and Part IV discussed defensemen. Specifically, we're interested in using the Yahoo average draft position (ADP) to not only determine the best players to target in your fantasy hockey draft, but also when to target them. The assumptions made in this article include the following: (1) you're in a Yahoo standard league, (2) your league has 12 managers, and (3) your league is not a keeper league.

Manager Behavior

Before we jump into the details of which goalies are undervalued, it's important to get a handle on how managers are behaving in their fantasy hockey drafts so far. In the image below, you'll see exactly how many goalies are drafted in each round of a standard draft (on average). At the goalies position, there are no goalies being selected in the first round of the typical draft this Summer (that's smart manager behavior and we aggressively advised managers last season that Andrei Vasilevskiy's ADP of 8.7 was a huge trap). Nine goalies are expected to come off the board in total for Rounds 2 through 4, followed by a lull in Round 5. The real goalie run in this year's drafts is happening between picks 74 and 100. A total of 11 goalies are being scooped up in this 27-pick window. That's 40% of all picks during that window that are devoted to goalies; don't get caught with your pants down. We can use this information to better understand who and when to take when our name is called during the draft.

Player Rankings and ADP

At leftwinglock.com, we create annual fantasy hockey draft kits which marry your scoring settings with our projections to generate customized player rankings This exact type of draft kit was used by our team to defeat the fantasy experts at NHL.com, win the first-ever Zero Transaction Fantasy Championship, and go undefeated in the Battle of the Fantasy Hockey Podcasts. The draft kit includes sortable spreadsheets filled with projections in 25+ categories for over 600 NHL players. For the purpose of this article, we generated the customized player rankings for NHL players that can be drafted as goalies in the Yahoo fantasy hockey system. We then compared these player rankings to the player's ADP (average draft position) to determine which players are undervalued (it's never wise to draft on rank number alone). That is, we're looking for players who our draft system ranked highly and whom managers are overlooking.

Below, you'll find a table of seven players who are eligible at goalie and are being undervalued by managers in fantasy drafts (there are many more listed in our draft kit). Detailed comments for some of these players can be found below the table.

Jacob Markstrom - Tracking ADP values (season-over-season) is a fascinating view into the minds of fantasy hockey managers. This is particularly true when looking at the ADP values of goalies. Jacob Markstrom's ADP values in recent seasons have been (most recent listed first): 131.0, 30.5, 134.4, 78.6, and 153.6. Is Markstrom an 11th round value? A 3rd round value? A 12th round value? A 7th round value? Or a 13th round value? The problem here is one of overreaction. Markstrom posted a 0.922 SV% in 2021-2022? Let's run out and draft him in the 3rd round. Markstrom posted a 0.892 SV% in 2022-2023? He's terrible; let's not draft him until the 11th round. When it comes to goalies, assessing their draft value with reasonable projections (as opposed to last year's numbers) is the far better approach; and this approach avoids the pitfalls of a goalie's expected value shifting by eight or more rounds from year to year. If you review our 2023-2024 Fantasy Hockey Draft Kit, you'll find that we viewed Calgary as a strong-but-unlucky team last season. As such, we are projecting a bounce-back season for Markstrom. We project his value (in Yahoo default leagues) to land in the middle of the 6th round. With managers largely ignoring him until the 11th round this year, you'll have multiple opportunities to draft him ahead of that ADP value.

Thatcher Demko - The Left Wing Lock team is known for their cold, analytical approach to fantasy hockey (and their good looks!) but we'd be lying if we didn't admit to having some favorite potential draft picks each season. Thatcher Demko is a classic setup in fantasy hockey. An otherwise strong goalie sees his single-season numbers annihilated by a historically unlucky penalty kill save percentage (PKSV%). Managers panic and allow Demko to slip as late as the 9th round. Demko's future PKSV% regresses toward the mean and managers are wondering why they passed on him in their drafts. Don't make this mistake. You can draft Demko in a value spot this offseason (and you should), but be mindful of that 11-goalie run that happens leading up to (and including) his ADP value.

Cam Talbot - Cam Talbot's ADP suggests that managers are making late-round bets on the Los Angeles Kings starting goalie. This is a smart, low-risk bet and one advised by the Left Wing Lock team. Talbot is 36 and in that dangerous age range for goalies where their performance can fall off a cliff seemingly without warning. But, the Kings (particulary under Todd McLellan) are a goalie-friendly team (fewer high-danger shots against); and Talbot has some history with McLellan including two very good seasons in Edmonton. You can do a lot of dumb things with your 14th or 15th round pick in fantasy drafts; this isn't one of those things.

Customized Player Rankings

If you're looking for a chance to draft players with great projections who are being ignored by the other fantasy hockey websites, then consider downloading one of our fantasy hockey draft kits this season. You won't be disappointed. While this article focused on the Yahoo standard scoring system, our customized draft kits can handle just about any scoring system you throw our way. You'll find plenty of draft day steals.

For 17 years, you've trusted Left Wing Lock as a reliable source to bring you accurate starting goalie information, line combinations, and player news alerts. That same passion and dedication fuels us as we create the best fantasy hockey draft kits available. We invite you to let us build your customized fantasy hockey draft kit for the 2023-2024 season. Order your kit today!

Legend

PLAYER: an NHL player involved in this analysis. Click player name to visit player profile page.

TEAM: the current NHL team for this player.

YPOS: the official position designation for this player in the Yahoo Fantasy Hockey system.

LWLRANK: the rank assigned by Left Wing Lock for this player in this specific scoring system only.

ADP: the average draft position for this player in the Yahoo Fantasy Hockey system.