Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

March 5, 2025 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Marcus Hogberg	0.9002	151	130	0.9470	0.9538

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Mackenzie Blackwood	0.9060	1231	173	0.9155	0.9191	0.9093
Leevi Meriläinen	0.9186	295	45	0.9254	0.9111	0.9171
Arvid Soderblom	0.8914	895	118	0.9061	0.9068	0.9022
Frederik Andersen	0.9157	293	51	0.9113	0.9020	0.9073
Alexandar Georgiev	0.9048	948	142	0.8787	0.8310	0.8890
Spencer Martin	0.8828	175	29	0.8457	0.8276	0.8616
Elvis Merzlikins	0.9027	1193	166	0.8961	0.8253	0.9034
Joonas Korpisalo	0.9008	507	74	0.8955	0.8243	0.9075
Eric Comrie	0.8970	430	51	0.9116	0.8235	0.9140
Aleksei Kolosov	0.8703	347	51	0.8703	0.8235	0.8767
David Rittich	0.9045	586	73	0.8874	0.8219	0.8950
Yaroslav Askarov	0.8993	357	44	0.8964	0.8182	0.8998
John Gibson	0.9100	705	97	0.9092	0.8144	0.9174
Jeremy Swayman	0.9127	1279	177	0.8960	0.8136	0.9032
Thatcher Demko	0.9107	412	48	0.8908	0.8125	0.8959
Scott Wedgewood	0.9057	404	53	0.9035	0.8113	0.9087
Jordan Binnington	0.9066	1138	139	0.8989	0.8058	0.9053
Anton Forsberg	0.9039	545	81	0.8954	0.8025	0.9056
Marc-Andre Fleury	0.9119	573	66	0.9040	0.7879	0.9119
Dan Vladar	0.8931	677	103	0.8936	0.7864	0.9071
Justus Annunen	0.9002	589	87	0.8879	0.7816	0.9006
Ilya Samsonov	0.9016	621	63	0.8873	0.7778	0.8965
Cam Talbot	0.9127	965	124	0.9016	0.7742	0.9151
Ivan Fedotov	0.8776	470	39	0.8851	0.7692	0.8909
Joel Hofer	0.9061	603	69	0.8988	0.7681	0.9117
Calvin Pickard	0.9030	565	55	0.8956	0.7455	0.9053
Semyon Varlamov	0.9156	262	30	0.8893	0.7333	0.9016

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2024-2025 save percentage

EVSV%: 2024-2025 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2024-2025 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2024-2025 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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